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Posts Tagged ‘Global News’

Well the global market is following its global leads down. Dollar has slipped surprisingly from the record spot earnings. It may spark rally NZX shares drop after Aussie dispute Local shares up in morning trade Wrightson leads gains while NZX falls Wall Street rockets up on strong data Dollar on a high again after upbeat US data Strong data lifts Europe stocks.

Also the Guinness Peat Group which is having shareholder approval to wind down its business and return capital to investors that led the NZX 50 Index lower after a weaker-than-expected jobs report in the US dented optimism about the global economy.

The NZX 50 fell 19.22, or 0.6 per cent, to 3436.910 as at midday, heading for its fifth straight daily decline and the lowest level since the end of June. Stocks on Wall Street fell on Friday, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down 0.7 per cent after US non-farm payrolls rose by just 18,000 in June.

That set the stage for weaker equity markets across Asia and Guinness Peat sank 6.3 per cent to 74 cents. The diversified investor has cancelled 227.9 million of its shares in exchange for payment of 35.07 pence apiece. Shareholders voted in favour of a capital return at their June 8 annual meeting and GPG is now looking to sell down its assets.

Cavalier slipped 0.3 per cent to $3.77 after Wool Equities emerged as a rival bidder for NZ Wool Services International, saying it has funding in place to make an offer for the wool scouring company.

Cavalier Wool Holdings, made up of Cavalier, ACC’s investment arm and private equity investor Direct Capital Investments was ordered to make a temporary halt to its offer for WSI on Friday pending an appeal by carpet maker Godfrey Hirst, which opposes that deal.

The Commerce Commission approved Cavalier’s $40 million takeover even though it would create a monopoly in New Zealand wool scouring because it agreed the competitive threat was from Chinese rivals.

Pyne Gould Corp was unchanged at 37 cents after the finance company confirmed it has taken a $14 million stake in a National Australia Bank loan to a related fund, Equity Partners Infrastructure Company (EPIC).

The deal will help EPIC avoid default and will help the orderly sale of its assets, the investment company said in a statement.

The NAB facility was due for repayment on April 30, but the lender waived that condition on the proviso EPIC significantly reduced its debt by the end of June, according to the NZX Market Supervision decision allowing the related party deal.

New Zealand property values crept up last month as a resurgent Auckland market bumped up the nationwide figures which were otherwise flat or negative.

National property values were 0.9 per cent below June 2010, compared to a deficit of 1.6 per cent in the rolling valuation for May, according to government valuer Quotable Value.

That’s just 5.2 per cent below the market peak in last 2007.

The improvement was largely off the back of a 1.4 per cent gain in Auckland property values compared to the same month a year ago, offsetting Wellington’s decline and Dunedin’s flat result. Christchurch values were still excluded given the uncertainty since the region’s earthquakes.

New Zealanders increased spending on credit and debit cards by 0.8 per cent last month, government figures show.

The seasonally adjusted value of total electronic card transactions climbed to $5.32 billion in June from $5.28 billion a month earlier, and was up 7.7 per cent compared to the same month a year earlier, according to Statistics New Zealand.

Spending on core retail industries, which strips out spending on vehicle-related industries, climbed 2.1 per cent to $3.35 billion.

The biggest gain came from spending on durables, which climbed 2.4 per cent to $996 million, while expenditure on consumables climbed 1.4 per cent to $1.46 billion.

The New Zealand dollar may continue to track upwards and test fresh post-float highs against the greenback this week, with local growth data expected to paint a more upbeat picture of the local economy versus its international peers.

Three of the five economists and market strategists surveyed by BusinessDesk saw the Kiwi gaining, while two saw the currency falling from its current level but remaining well supported.

Also the Kiwi group which was recently at US83.54 cents might trade between a mean range of 81.83 cents and 84.10 cents, according to the survey.

With the QE2, set at five weeks and Greece down the hill towards the global standard is not best suited to withstand an economic slowdown.

This is precisely what seems to happen when Asian demand is affected by a cooling of China and Japan struggling.

Let’s take a look at the evidence:

Japan’s economy shrank by 0.9 percent in the three months to March, battered by the earthquake, tsunami and ongoing nuclear fiasco.

The preliminary HSBC/Markit purchasing managers’ index for China fell to 51.1 in May from a final reading of 51.8 in April, holding in expansionary territory above 50 but amidst growing evidence that China is coming off the boil. Chinese demand for raw materials and semi-finished products has been one of the global economy’s principal supports, but now a monetary policy tightening campaign may be gaining traction.

The Chicago Fed national index, derived itself from 85 economic indicators, came in at negative 0.45 in April compared to 0.32 in March. There are numerous signals of an industrial slowdown in the U.S., while the housing market continues to weaken, threatening financial stability and consumer spending.

Finally, in Europe the euro zone composite flash PMI, an indicator combining service sector and manufacturing purchasing, fell to 55.4 from 57.8. More worryingly, the headline manufacturing index had its biggest fall since Lehman Brothers failed, falling by 3.1 points to 54.8.

“All in all it seems to us that the odds are high that a domestic and global economic slowdown is already in place.  In the U.S. the slowdown is happening with only weeks to go before the end of QE2, a program that has been a major prop for even the tepid recovery we’ve undergone so far,” said Charlie Minter of fund managers Comstock Partners in a note to clients.

“For the stock market nothing seems to matter until, suddenly, it does.”

It has begun to matter recently to the stock market, which has fallen in recent sessions after a sustained rally. The bond market has already figured this out; since mid-April U.S. 10-year yields are down more than 12 percent to 3.12 percent. Given that the U.S. debt market faces a debt showdown and the end of QE2, both factors which should theoretically send yields higher, this slide in yields shows real doubts about future growth.

CRUEL SUMMER

It is worth noting that the euro zone’s woes were not this time concentrated in the weak peripheral states; this time Germany got whacked too. That may well reflect the wrench thrown into production from Japanese plant closings, which in itself will self-correct. It is also likely reflecting a slowdown in demand for German products from China. If you believe that Chinese demand was artificially boosted by very easy credit, and that Chinese demand in turn was driving global growth, then this is an indicator of a very busy and volatile summer in financial markets.

Global markets have ignored, more or less, the euro zone’s issues for more than a year, but did so in a very supportive atmosphere. The Federal Reserve was buying up Treasuries, sending cash into risk markets in waves, while China continued to grow at a blistering pace. It may be that China is important not just because its slowdown affects demand, but because it lets investors focus on the actual prospects in the euro zone.

Will Germany and France be as willing to foot the bill for Greece if their own manufacturing bases begin to shrink? It is possible but a lot less likely.

Meanwhile the crisis both builds and spreads, with a dispute over debt reprofiling (a sort of doe-eyed default) between the European Central Bank and European officials and a fantasy plan by Greece to raise 15 billion euros through asset sales.

Greece may turn out to be a minor worry; Belgium and Italy have been threatened with credit downgrades by Fitch.

So what happens from here? A palatable outcome would be a gentle decline in economic momentum followed by a strong second half. This makes absorbing the impact from Europe easier, and makes it easier for Europe to come to terms with itself.

A less likely, perhaps, but still possible scenario is that the manufacturing slowdown gains speeds just as Europe faces a contagion from the periphery, either to parts of the core, to the banking system of the core, or both.

At this stage, the Federal Reserve is a horrible choice, we extend the quantitative easing supported by the recent economic slowdown, or peace of mind, the rhythm is a recession, and I hope to get something else?

The global economy is likely to fuse on its recovery from the global economic meltdown as reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Director, African Department Mr.Saul Lizondo. He mentioned about this economic recovery plan during the launch of IMF’s Semi-Annual Sub-Saharan African Regional Economic Outlook held in Lagos.

Lizondo told that Sub-Saharan African’s economic recovery from the crisis-induced delay is going fine and under the way, with growth in most countries now back fairly close the high levels of the mid-2000s. As accord to Lizondo, “The main recovery remains multi speed 6.5% growth in emerging market and two and half  per cent growth in AE; four and half  per cent global growth”.

He put in plain words that evidence of the economic recovery is borne out by high frequency data, noting that after an inventory acceleration-slowdown cycle activity seems poised to re-accelerate in 2011.

Abebe Selassie, Regional Studies Division chief added that the severity of the shock imparted by the financial crisis and the global recession that followed, after a brief hiatus, output expansion in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa has returned to the high precrisis levels.

Selassie said “with the advent of another sharp increase in food and fuel prices, the resilience exhibited by the region during the last few years is about to be tested again. The price shocks (coupled with the recovery) are likely to lead to higher inflation in most countries and to deteriorating current account deficits in a number of fuel importers”.

Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Finance, Mr. Danladi Kifasi assuredly said the Nigerian economy and that of the sub-Saharan region will continue to be strong and resilient.

Kifasi, who represented the Minister of Finance Mr. Olusegun Aganga said “the policies we are implementing are targeted at ensuring the sustainability of that growth as well as building it on a strong and diversified foundation.”

Speaking on Nigeria’s revenue base, he disclosed  plans by Government to diversify revenue base away from oil and gas by broadening the tax base adding that the Government is determined to bring the budget back to balance through the enhancement of revenues and by increasing the efficiency of its expenditure.

He said, “we will achieve this by modernizing and improving the efficiency of tax framework” IMF, in a statement  “the overall sanguine picture must be judged alongside still lingering dislocations from the global financial crisis. The region’ progress toward the poverty reduction Millennium Development Goals has been delayed by rising unemployment and the impact of the 2008 spike in food and fuel prices”

“With strong growth and rising inflation pressures, the broad direction of fiscal policy in most countries should be moving away from the supportive stance of the last few years. Nevertheless, fiscal support to poor households hit by rising food prices will need to be accommodated in some countries”.

In a statement, IMF clearly stated that economic policy remains looser than desirable in many low income countries or economically backward countries in the region, even before the recent heave in food and fuel prices. The IMF statement also states that “To counter incipient inflationary pressures, monetary policy will need to be tightened, particularly where growth has already regained pre-crisis level.”

So let us wait and watch the progress and the outcomes of this global economic recovery plan. It may help the World Economy in a way or other.

The British government should e-privacy at the international level, together with EU partners and the United States, the Communications Minister Ed Vaizey said.
In his speech, the CBI Forum on e-privacy and digital economy, Vaizey said the Internet must be potted “lightly regulated driven.

But he said similar privacy standards were emerging from current regulation and new legislation in Europe and the US.

Unlike traditional television and radio publishing, Vaizey said the internet did not respect national boundaries. And he said: “The rules governing on-line privacy need to reflect that.”

“For the sake of web users and businesses we need a unified and consistent approach to on-line privacy that crosses borders.”

US regulation under a forthcoming ‘consumer bill of rights’ was said to be “not that different” from European data protection and e-Privacy directives, and Vaizey said countries should work together.

Creating an international standard to ensure the privacy of online business to compete on an equal footing, in which Web users enjoy the same protection that is based on the site. “

The Ukrainian Economy Ministry expects that in 2010 exports of good and services will grow by 21.8% and imports will rise by 20.3%, while the official government forecast for this year foresees a 15.1% and 14.4% rise in these indicators respectively, reads a posting on the Economy Ministry’s Web site.

“[The revision of the export and import forecasts] has led to the improvement of the balance of trade: from minus $1.9 billion [in the government's forecasts] to minus $1.6 billion,” the ministry said.

The ministry said that the key goods exported this year would be those of the chemical and engineering industries. Due to a certain fall in demand and prices on the international metals markets, a slowdown in the growth in metal exports is forecast.

According to the report, imports will grow along with the economic growth of the country’s main trade partners and the post-crisis recovery of domestic production.

As for inflation, the ministry said that it would not exceed 12% this year, while the official forecast foresees a 13.1% rise in prices.

“The price growth pace in H1, 2010 was influenced by the increase in prices of gas for end consumers, the rise of tariffs for utility services, grain prices, excise duties on alcohol, tobacco and fuel, prices of lubricants in the period of active farm work, and the continuation of the trend of growing deposits of the public,” the ministry said.

According to the report, due to the impact of the accelerated rise in prices on some commodity markets, in particular, ferrous metals, a higher rise in industrial prices is expected – 18.5% against 14.4% forecasted by the government.

The Economy Ministry’s forecast of GDP growth coincides with the cabinet’s assessments – 3.7%.

The growth of real wages in the country in 2010 is projected at 7.4%, while the government forecasts 5%.