The web economy blog

Archive for May, 2011

With the QE2, set at five weeks and Greece down the hill towards the global standard is not best suited to withstand an economic slowdown.

This is precisely what seems to happen when Asian demand is affected by a cooling of China and Japan struggling.

Let’s take a look at the evidence:

Japan’s economy shrank by 0.9 percent in the three months to March, battered by the earthquake, tsunami and ongoing nuclear fiasco.

The preliminary HSBC/Markit purchasing managers’ index for China fell to 51.1 in May from a final reading of 51.8 in April, holding in expansionary territory above 50 but amidst growing evidence that China is coming off the boil. Chinese demand for raw materials and semi-finished products has been one of the global economy’s principal supports, but now a monetary policy tightening campaign may be gaining traction.

The Chicago Fed national index, derived itself from 85 economic indicators, came in at negative 0.45 in April compared to 0.32 in March. There are numerous signals of an industrial slowdown in the U.S., while the housing market continues to weaken, threatening financial stability and consumer spending.

Finally, in Europe the euro zone composite flash PMI, an indicator combining service sector and manufacturing purchasing, fell to 55.4 from 57.8. More worryingly, the headline manufacturing index had its biggest fall since Lehman Brothers failed, falling by 3.1 points to 54.8.

“All in all it seems to us that the odds are high that a domestic and global economic slowdown is already in place.  In the U.S. the slowdown is happening with only weeks to go before the end of QE2, a program that has been a major prop for even the tepid recovery we’ve undergone so far,” said Charlie Minter of fund managers Comstock Partners in a note to clients.

“For the stock market nothing seems to matter until, suddenly, it does.”

It has begun to matter recently to the stock market, which has fallen in recent sessions after a sustained rally. The bond market has already figured this out; since mid-April U.S. 10-year yields are down more than 12 percent to 3.12 percent. Given that the U.S. debt market faces a debt showdown and the end of QE2, both factors which should theoretically send yields higher, this slide in yields shows real doubts about future growth.

CRUEL SUMMER

It is worth noting that the euro zone’s woes were not this time concentrated in the weak peripheral states; this time Germany got whacked too. That may well reflect the wrench thrown into production from Japanese plant closings, which in itself will self-correct. It is also likely reflecting a slowdown in demand for German products from China. If you believe that Chinese demand was artificially boosted by very easy credit, and that Chinese demand in turn was driving global growth, then this is an indicator of a very busy and volatile summer in financial markets.

Global markets have ignored, more or less, the euro zone’s issues for more than a year, but did so in a very supportive atmosphere. The Federal Reserve was buying up Treasuries, sending cash into risk markets in waves, while China continued to grow at a blistering pace. It may be that China is important not just because its slowdown affects demand, but because it lets investors focus on the actual prospects in the euro zone.

Will Germany and France be as willing to foot the bill for Greece if their own manufacturing bases begin to shrink? It is possible but a lot less likely.

Meanwhile the crisis both builds and spreads, with a dispute over debt reprofiling (a sort of doe-eyed default) between the European Central Bank and European officials and a fantasy plan by Greece to raise 15 billion euros through asset sales.

Greece may turn out to be a minor worry; Belgium and Italy have been threatened with credit downgrades by Fitch.

So what happens from here? A palatable outcome would be a gentle decline in economic momentum followed by a strong second half. This makes absorbing the impact from Europe easier, and makes it easier for Europe to come to terms with itself.

A less likely, perhaps, but still possible scenario is that the manufacturing slowdown gains speeds just as Europe faces a contagion from the periphery, either to parts of the core, to the banking system of the core, or both.

At this stage, the Federal Reserve is a horrible choice, we extend the quantitative easing supported by the recent economic slowdown, or peace of mind, the rhythm is a recession, and I hope to get something else?

What’s the Latest Development?

Another attempt to make a go of using the power of the web to create an economy of “micro-payments” whereby individuals and corporations could charge tiny sums for their content. Flattr, a micropayment startup founded by Pirate Bay co-founder Peter Sunde, is preparing to launch a new feature that will combine its payment system with Twitter, and allow any Flattr user to send money to someone via their Twitter name.

What’s the Big Idea?

Could this help launch a “tip jar” system that actually works on a large scale and transforms the online content industry in much the same way The Pirate Bay disrupted it, but for the better? Or will it just be the latest failed micropayment startup? Since there aren’t any of the physical restrictions on money and transactions that occur in the real world this kind of micro-economy should work quite well. The only problem is that it never has.

The global economy is likely to fuse on its recovery from the global economic meltdown as reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Director, African Department Mr.Saul Lizondo. He mentioned about this economic recovery plan during the launch of IMF’s Semi-Annual Sub-Saharan African Regional Economic Outlook held in Lagos.

Lizondo told that Sub-Saharan African’s economic recovery from the crisis-induced delay is going fine and under the way, with growth in most countries now back fairly close the high levels of the mid-2000s. As accord to Lizondo, “The main recovery remains multi speed 6.5% growth in emerging market and two and half  per cent growth in AE; four and half  per cent global growth”.

He put in plain words that evidence of the economic recovery is borne out by high frequency data, noting that after an inventory acceleration-slowdown cycle activity seems poised to re-accelerate in 2011.

Abebe Selassie, Regional Studies Division chief added that the severity of the shock imparted by the financial crisis and the global recession that followed, after a brief hiatus, output expansion in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa has returned to the high precrisis levels.

Selassie said “with the advent of another sharp increase in food and fuel prices, the resilience exhibited by the region during the last few years is about to be tested again. The price shocks (coupled with the recovery) are likely to lead to higher inflation in most countries and to deteriorating current account deficits in a number of fuel importers”.

Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Finance, Mr. Danladi Kifasi assuredly said the Nigerian economy and that of the sub-Saharan region will continue to be strong and resilient.

Kifasi, who represented the Minister of Finance Mr. Olusegun Aganga said “the policies we are implementing are targeted at ensuring the sustainability of that growth as well as building it on a strong and diversified foundation.”

Speaking on Nigeria’s revenue base, he disclosed  plans by Government to diversify revenue base away from oil and gas by broadening the tax base adding that the Government is determined to bring the budget back to balance through the enhancement of revenues and by increasing the efficiency of its expenditure.

He said, “we will achieve this by modernizing and improving the efficiency of tax framework” IMF, in a statement  “the overall sanguine picture must be judged alongside still lingering dislocations from the global financial crisis. The region’ progress toward the poverty reduction Millennium Development Goals has been delayed by rising unemployment and the impact of the 2008 spike in food and fuel prices”

“With strong growth and rising inflation pressures, the broad direction of fiscal policy in most countries should be moving away from the supportive stance of the last few years. Nevertheless, fiscal support to poor households hit by rising food prices will need to be accommodated in some countries”.

In a statement, IMF clearly stated that economic policy remains looser than desirable in many low income countries or economically backward countries in the region, even before the recent heave in food and fuel prices. The IMF statement also states that “To counter incipient inflationary pressures, monetary policy will need to be tightened, particularly where growth has already regained pre-crisis level.”

So let us wait and watch the progress and the outcomes of this global economic recovery plan. It may help the World Economy in a way or other.