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Archive for January, 2011

Employers will hire more workers in 2011 year and the economy will grow faster than expected three months ago, according to an Associated Press investigation found optimism on the rise among the classical economists.

However, unemployment remains chronically high of nearly 9 percent at year end, the last quarter AP Economics Survey shows. A majority of economists say it will be 2016 or later, before the unemployment rate falling to a historically normal rate of around 5 percent.

Economists have become more confident 19 months after the worst recession since the Great Depression ended. Lower Social Security taxes and higher stock prices will embolden Americans to spend more and help power the economy, they say.

“People will finally recognize that an economic recovery is under way,” said Lynn Reaser, a board member of the National Association for Business Economics. “This won’t be a recovery seen only by economists.”

The gains this year will be enough to withstand the threats still clouding the economy, the AP survey found. A majority of the economists doubt, for example, that falling home prices and higher mortgage rates will pose a major risk to the economy in 2011.

The AP survey collected the views of 42 private, corporate and academic economists on a range of indicators. Among their forecasts: The economy will grow 3.2 percent this year, compared with the 2.7 percent they forecast in October. That would top last year’s estimated growth of less than 3 percent.

Employers will create a net total of 2.2 million jobs. Three months ago, the economists predicted 1.6 million jobs would be added in 2011. Last year, employers added roughly 1.1 million.

Consumers will spend 3.2 percent more this year than last year. That’s stronger than the 2.5 percent growth the economists had forecast in October. And it’s nearly double the spending growth that’s estimated for 2010.

Inflation will be 1.8 percent this year, barely more than the 1.7 percent the economists forecast in the previous survey and up only slightly from 1.5 percent last year. The 1.8 percent forecast falls within the range of inflation the Federal Reserve thinks a healthy economy needs.

Among the reasons for the economists’ growing optimism: an extension of income-tax cuts, a cut in Social Security taxes for workers, easier access to loans, higher stock prices and a government that seems more sympathetic to the priorities of businesses.

The brighter outlook is also evident among people responsible for hiring. Jerry Huddleston, human resources manager of the Ozark Natural Foods grocery store in Fayetteville, Ark., said he plans to hire for busy weekend shifts because sales are improving.

The store is generally slow to add jobs. But Huddleston said business is picking up. Customers seem more willing to pay more for organic milk, vitamin supplements and pre-made vegetarian meals. “I think people are starting to be more confident that the job they have is the job they will have tomorrow,” he said.

As the economy gradually strengthens, the economists expect interest rates will pick up, as they already have begun to do. They think the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, now at 3.4 percent, will reach 3.6 percent by midyear and 3.9 percent by year’s end. Those higher rates would force up mortgage rates, which tend to track the 10-year Treasury yield.

Yet when asked about a range of threats from falling home prices and rising energy prices to state budget woes and Europe’s debt crisis the economists called each a minor risk rather than a major risk to the economy. In the spring and summer, many analysts had feared the economy might slide back into a “double-dip” recession.

“Consumers and businesses are in a better mood,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. “They are spending a little more freely. Not a lot more freely, but a little more freely.”

That helps explain why Behravesh has lifted his forecast for economic growth in 2011 to 3.2 percent, from 2.2 percent in October.

Still, the Fed said Wednesday that the economy isn’t growing fast enough to lower unemployment and still needs help from the Fed’s $600 billion Treasury bond-purchase program. The bond purchases are intended to lower rates on loans and boost stock prices, spurring more spending and invigorating the economy.

President Barack Obama still faces risks from voters skeptical of his economic stewardship, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. More than half disapprove of how he’s handled the economy. Just 35 percent say it’s improved on his watch; 40 percent had said so a year ago.

Yet public sentiment may brighten if the economists prove correct in their forecasts. Rajeev Dhawan, director of Georgia State University’s Economic Forecasting Center, has raised his estimate for growth this year to 2.7 percent, from 1.8 percent three months ago.

This 2011 is better than 2010 for terms of hiring, spending and economic growth, “said Dhawan.”However, unemployment is falling slowly. At least we’re not going back.”

Addressing climate change should play a greater role in the world economic recovery, Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel laureate and professor of economics at Columbia University said at a public lecture in Pretoria on Monday.

“Addressing climate change can be a part of the recovery,” he said, adding that once the world economy had achieved a recovery, it would be more difficult to get green technologies to be part of the world economy.

Limiting emissions globally would see countries having to cut their emissions globally by 80 percent, but he said that this figure would vary from country to country.

Stiglitz said a carbon tax of $80 a ton was a realistic tax that would encourage investment in green technologies. He was in favour of carbon taxes and was critical of trading in emissions permits, which he believed would see the worst polluters obtain permits.

Stiglitz had been disappointed in the world’s failure to reach an agreement at the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen.

He said the biggest impediment to reaching an agreement on how to tackle the climate change was on how to share the burden of cutting emissions.

Every time a poker player sits down to play the cash game, whether it is in a Las Vegas casino, at home, or at an online poker room, a decision must be made on how much money or chips they want to bring to the table. Most card rooms will have a minimum buy-in amount, and certain games might have a maximum. When players decide to purchase the minimum, or only a small amount of chips (nicknamed ‘short money’), it is considered to be an indication of weakness and a ‘tell’ on the players ability or recent fortune.

Players that start the game with a short chip stack are often considered by the others to be scared of losing, and consequently must play cards with a poor poker strategy. It has been observed that players not expecting to win often use a short-buy to limit their losses on playing mistakes, while good players maximize their potential wins by having a big stack at the table. The ‘short money’ image of weakness holds true much more at no-limit games over other forms of poker.

Strategically, aggressive betting, semi-bluffing and blind stealing is usually considered correct strategy at no-limit games, and short stacks simply don’t have the amunition to make those bigger bets needed. Big stacks can make the occasional bluff with the confidence of staying in action if it goes wrong, and can use their calling ability to deter small stacks from risking a bluff against them. Using a big pile of chips as a psychological tool to induce or prevents bets from weaker opponents can be a very successfull strategy when done properly, and good players will immediately recognize anyone not able to do the same as a potential target.

Your own mind-set should be considered when purchasing chips at a table as well. For example, a player that buys-in for $20, loses it, re-buys for $20, loses again and put another $20 on the table, will likely be in a much worse position mentally then a player that simply started with $140 and now has $100 on the table. These sense of losing multiple times will put players on tilt and make them lose focus much more than being down on chips ‘temporarily’.

Occasionally short money players are actually good players that are broke for reasons outside of the game, and other times a small stack that is seen may not have necessarily started that way earlier in the day. Although these incidents aren’t an indication of the players’ ability, it may at least be a tell on their current state of mind. A player facing problems away from the game never seems to play their best poker and players on a bad run, no matter how good they can be, often go on tilt and play differently or poorly when loosing.

The ‘short money’ tell is one of the few behavioral tells that seems to hold true online as well as in real life, however it seems to have more accuracy in actual brick and mortar casinos. Winning players should be looking to exploit any players presenting this remarkably reliable tell, mostly by raising and betting aggressively against these small stacks. It is important to avoid this situation yourself by consistently sitting down with one of the larger stacks at the table and remaining adequately funded for any poker game you play.

Activity in the UK services sector declined unexpectedly in December dominant, a survey showed yesterday, suggesting the overall economy has stagnated over the last month and raised concerns about the process collection and public spending and tax cut horizontally.

Severe winter played a role in the weakness of the services sector last month, but the investigation of the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply nevertheless made a slower recovery of this essential part of the economy.

CIPS, combining the buoyant manufacturing and weak construction and services surveys it has published this week, said its all-sector output index had dropped “worryingly” from 54.0 in November to 51.4 last month. This is the largest points fall in any month since November 2008, in the depths of the recession.

CIPS declared this index “signals a slowing in GDP (gross domestic product) growth to near-stagnation in December.”

Its seasonally-adjusted business activity index for services tumbled from 53.0 in November to 49.7 last month – falling below the level of 50 which separates expansion from contraction for the first time since April 2009.

December’s reading was way adrift of the 53 figure forecast by the City. The service sector shed jobs for a third straight month, according to CIPS, which does not include retailers in its survey. And confidence among service companies remained well adrift of its long-term trend level.

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat Government in June unveiled £113 billion per annum of public spending cuts and tax hikes by 2014/15. The rate of value-added tax was hiked from 17.5% to 20% this week. And public spending cuts will get under way in earnest this year.

CIPS said on Wednesday that UK construction activity had fallen in December – for the first time since February. In contrast, it said on Tuesday that the pace of manufacturing growth had risen in December to its fastest pace for more than 16 years.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at CIPS’ survey sponsor and financial information group Markit, said: “Severe winter weather certainly disrupted business in December, especially in the services and construction sectors, from which some rebound can be expected. However, anecdotal evidence from the surveys suggests that the weather merely exacerbated a more fundamental weakening of growth that has been signposted in advance for some time.”

He added: “Since the summer, business confidence has slumped, outside of manufacturing. Although off summer lows, expectations regarding business activity in the coming 12 months remain at levels rarely seen in the history of the surveys, and tend to be associated with economic crises and falling activity. No imminent improvement in growth rates is signalled by these reliable indicators.

“The UK appears to be on course for disappointing growth in early 2011, especially as any rebound from weather-related disruptions will occur alongside January’s increase in VAT.”

The poor service sector survey appears to increase the chances that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will continue to hold UK base rates at a record low of 0.5% in coming months in spite of above-target inflation.

The median forecast from a poll of UK economists published yesterday by news agency Reuters is that base rates will not rise to 0.75% until the final three months of this year. The median prediction is that base rates will then rise to 1% in the first quarter of 2012 and to 1.5% during the three months to June next year.

Only seven of 60 economists who expressed an opinion forecast the MPC would raise base rates before June, and the median probability of an increase by then was put at 30%.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at consultancy IHS Global Insight, said CIPS’ services survey was “a bit of a shocker”.He added: “It is evident that December’s severe weather had a significant adverse impact on the sector. Nevertheless, the survey fuels concern that services activity is already being pressurised appreciably by the fiscal squeeze.”

Severe winter weather will have played some part in service sector weakness last month

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke on Capitol Hill is more confidence in the prospects of the economy and jobs, but not enough to retire from the Fed,s 600 billion U.S. dollars of the bond program to buy Friday.

Bernanke’s testimony before the Senate Budget Committee is his first appearance in Congress since the Fed announced in November it planned to buy 600 billion in Treasury bond purchases in June are designed to stimulate the economy by reducing interest rates and rising stock prices.

The program has been criticized by Republicans in Congress and some Fed officials who contend it will do little to help the economy and could hurt it by unleashing inflation and speculative buying on Wall Street. The move heightened tensions with trading partners including China, Germany and Brazil. They complained it was really a scheme to push down the value of the dollar, giving U.S. exporters a competitive edge.

Bernanke is expected to defend the program and signal the Fed intends to spend the full amount as scheduled, while also delivering a more encouraging message about the economic outlook for 2011.

“The economy seems to be moving in the right direction. But he’ll also caution that now is not the time for the Fed or for Congress to pull up supports,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.

Factories are cranking up production. The service sector is growing at its fastest pace in more than four years. Fewer people applied for unemployment benefits over the past month than in any other four-week period in more than two years. Consumers are spending more freely, and a payroll tax cut is likely to boost their activity further. All that suggests hiring will accelerate in the months ahead.

Bernanke’s testimony is scheduled to start one hour after the government releases its December jobs report. Economists are predicting that employers added 145,000 new positions last month and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.7 percent.

“The Fed chief will talk about improvements in the economy and will sound more optimistic,” said James O’Sullivan, economist at MF Global. “But he’ll caution that unemployment is historically high and has a long way to go to get back to normal.

Bernanke has said it could take four or five years for unemployment to drop to a historically normal, 5.5 percent to 6 percent. That’s why O’Sullivan and other economists predict Bernanke will make the case that bond-buying program is still needed.

Economists and Fed officials think Congress’ tax-reduction plan will help bolster the economy this year and should spur more hiring.

The tax package extends tax cuts enacted by President George W. Bush in 2001 and 2003, gives a pay raise to working Americans by lowering the Social Security payroll tax, provides tax breaks to businesses and extends unemployment benefits. The package has a price tag of $858 billion over two years.

Similarly, economists predict Bernanke will argue for Congress and the White House to come up with a long-term plan to reduce the government’s trillion-plus-dollar budget deficits.

President Barack Obama’s debt commission at the end of last year failed to reach a consensus on what to do about exploding deficits. Over the coming decade government deficits are estimated in the $10 trillion range. If Congress fails to come up with a plan to curb those deficits in the long run, the economy could be hurt, Bernanke is likely to say. Big deficits could force investors to demand more returns to loan out their money to the government. Interest rates could soar, crimping spending and slowing the economy.

Risks still lurk, the Fed said earlier this week. Seizures can lower the prices of houses more and further weaken the housing market. Try to balance their budgets, struggling state and local governments could cut spending more deeply and lay off employees. These forces would weigh on economic growth.

Poker is a game of chance. You must win the game a lot depends on the hand you have, but there is a certain amount of strategy that you can include a game that can help solve your hand when used properly. Here are five tips for when you play poker with low limits.

Low-limit poker is used to playing primarily for lower stakes, because the bet limit is lower than in other types of poker Limit. Suggestions that follow are used primarily in online poker, but can be used for playing live game.

In Low-Limit poker the strategy is much different from that of the higher stakes games seen on television or played in the casinos because the game is played differently, you must incorporate a different strategy when playing.

First, find a way to pay close attention. Stay alert at all times so that you are fully aware of what your opponents are doing, as well as yourself. Because you are playing a Low-Limit game, the players will not play like they would if the stakes were higher, since there isn’t nearly as much at stake, but it is still crucial to know what is going on.

Next, manage your Low-Limit Table Bankroll. Know how much you want to walk away with, and when you have lost to that amount, leave the game. This will keep you from continually betting and possibly losing even more money than you started out with in the first place.

Next, use Sit-N-Go’s to get your No-Limit fix. If you like playing Low-Limit poker, play at the Sit-N-Go’s instead of the lower stakes NL cash tables. Sit-N-Go’s are there to get No-Limit enjoyment, and the loss is limited to the buy-in.

Next tip, maintain discipline. Find another table if you feel you are unable or do not want to continue playing at the one you are on. Discipline is the key to not losing too much money, and developing it early will help you even when playing larger stakes games.

Last, build your stack playing Low-Limit. If the action seems to slow for you at ten person tables, move to six handed ones. There is more action there and here you can continue to play disciplined, aggressive poker.

Online poker is a great way to practice low-limit strategies. Here, you do not play, and have the opportunity to improve your game and learn more about strategy and technique. Once you have developed your strategy and feel more comfortable with your game, you can go to a casino where the game is live. You may even decide to move to larger stakes games.